Wondering when things will get back to normal?

I think most of us are adjusting to a “new normal”. We read about what is happening in our housing market  now, but what about long term?

Travel overseas seems to be one of the many things a lot of Kiwis and Australians are also concerned about.

A lot of us have family living all over the world and we wonder when we will get to see our loved ones again in person.

I know that I feel heart sore when I think of my immediate family overseas growing up so fast without being able to see them in person.

It seems like a long time away as countries go in and out of lock down at different levels while we wait for a vaccine to Covid-19.

The procedures put in place to keep the Borders safe in most countries which involve quarantine also make the cost of international travel prohibitive to a lot of us.

We have recently seen the housing market go up in some countries, with supply and demand factors driving it, as people return from overseas.

They then compete with buyers already looking to buy. Not to mention those leaving the Savings arena due to poor interest returns.

A recent  Australian report suggests that the demand for housing in Australia could be reduced by between 129,000 and 232,000 dwellings over the next three years based on a range of scenarios.

( This is according to the research of the NHFIC ).

Research has shown that International border closures have effectively shut down net overseas migration, which accounted for 59 percent of population growth since 2007 in Australia.

The most pessimistic scenario implies a reduction in the population increase – from peak to trough – of 214,000 from 2019 to 2021.

This implies a decline of 0.8 per cent of the population over the two-year period, which has only been surpassed by World War I and the unwinding of the peak of the baby boom in 1971.

They also noted that the past two recessions showed that rising unemployment tends to lead a decline in natural population growth.

Housing demand

NHFIC commented that “Australia’s second wave of infections is likely to further slow population growth, adding to the depth of the downturn and therefore hindering the pace of recovery in underlying housing demand”.

So it is a “wait and see” for most of us really as there is no way of knowing for sure is there?

It is also a time when we need to spend to keep our economies growing.  However, we should consider things like not “overcapitalising” by doing excessive work on our homes.

The urge to improve them, instead of upsizing or downsizing, or by merely spending our holiday savings on something tangible instead of a trip to an Island resort is now common.

A ” keep calm and don’t panic ” approach would be a sensible way of approaching what could lie ahead if researched statistics are anything to go by.

 

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